Manila, Philippines (April 3, 2020) – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has released the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) for the year 2020 that growth in the developing Asian economy is expected to reduce. Sharply lower in 2020 due to the effects of the epidemic of the COVID-19 virus, before getting better in 2021
The report expects the region to grow to 2.2 percent in 2020, a 3.3-point decline from 5.5 percent in September 2019. However, it is expected that the region will grow again at 6.2 percent in the year 2021 if the epidemic ends and activities Proceed as normal Developing Asian countries (excluding Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan) are expected to grow by 2.4 percent in 2020, compared to 5.7 percent in 2019 before improving to 6.7 percent next year.
“The epidemic spreading throughout the world has resulted in highly uncertain global and regional economic growth. It may grow below or recover slower than currently expected. Therefore, strong coordination is needed to be able to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus and reduce the economic impact as much as possible. Especially for vulnerable groups, “said Nayazuyuki Sawada, ADB’s chief economist.
For China, the heavy contraction of the service industry, retail and investment sectors in the first quarter, as the outbreak of COVID-19, will slow Chinese growth to 2.3 percent this year and will return to normal. At 7.3 percent in the year 2021 before returning to normal As for India Measures to control the spread of the virus and the weak global environment this year will replace the benefits of tax cuts and financial reforms in the past. The Indian economy is expected to grow at a slower rate of 4 percent in the fiscal year 2020 before growing stronger in the next fiscal year at 6.2 percent.
Weakness throughout Asia is an external factor that undermines the economy in key industrial countries like the United States. Eurozone and Japanese countries recession, exporters of certain products and oil Like in Central Asia Will be affected by falling product prices Brent oil prices are expected to be around $ 35 per barrel this year, down from $ 64 per barrel in 2019.
Sub-regional growth across Asia will not be strong this year. Due to weak global demand And the spread of COVID-19, including epidemic control measures in some countries Sub-regions with open economies such as East Asia And Southeast Asia Or sub-regions that rely primarily on tourism, such as the Pacific Will be heavily affected It is expected that the Pacific economy will contract by 0.3 percent in 2020, before recovering to 2.7 percent in 2021.
For Thailand, the ADO report expects the economy to contract by -4.8 percent in 2020, before improving to 2.5 percent in 2021 by exports and services. The tourism Private investment And business confidence will continue to decline this year due to the outbreak of COVID-19 mainly before returning to better in 2021, but the risk of economic growth still. Exist Because the spread of the virus may have a serious impact on economies that rely on international trade and tourism. Small and medium-sized entrepreneurs can benefit from help measures that help digital technology be used in a business model.
The special article of this report is to assess the latest impact of the Coronavirus epidemic on the economy in developing Asian countries. And the impact on the economy in various branches of each country The global epidemic damage is estimated to be around $ 2 trillion to $ 4.1 trillion, or a loss of around 2.3 to 4.8 percent of global GDP. This latest forecast This is a further improvement from the previous report released on March 6, reflecting the current global epidemic situation. Resulting in the use of quarantine and travel restrictions throughout the world And reflect the latest data that can indicate the impact of the epidemic on activities in China.
The forecasts for the above effects have not yet included factors such as the stoppage of production. Interruption of international money transfers Urgent health care costs The financial sector stops And the long-term impact on education and the economy.
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